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A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that split the nation and caused turmoil, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is equipped.

That conveys the caution from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Structures Unprepared

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."

Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue

The team have studied the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.

"What haunts everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly divided society where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a national vote.

Lack of Substantive Discussion

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of serious debate, said the journalist.

"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in academia but hardly any elected officials or activists are willing to participate even with the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Volume's Strategy

In the book, no writer advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Both authors two essays that aim for neutrality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and societal figures, previous instances and structural examples.

Discussions range over identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and provoke dialogue.

"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated the writer. "Discussion implies an recognition of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they favour unification but oppose increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.

"The Irish government must establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.

Possibility of Referendum

McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified points, he commented. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will ultimately lose but each side has got something to gain from the opposing viewpoints."

Request for Wider Debate

Westminster needed to engage with the debate, urged O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."